Thursday, August 12, 2010

FINAL CLASS: August 12, 2010

Principle advantage of adaptive reuse is using a lot less materials and LEED gives points by using part of old structure. A disadvantage of adaptive reuse is that reused buildings may never be as efficient as new construction because of new construction technologies. With the trend of moving to the core of the city adaptive reuse is becoming more of a necessity than anything.

We talked at length about population trends and urbanization and where people are wanting to live. It is pretty apparent that the trend is going back into the urban core, but the argument was regarding technology. With technology the way it is today, why can’t people live out in the middle of the nowhere but still be connected to the rest of the world. With webcams and all kinds of telecommuting capabilities what would be the point of living in the urban core? Just a matter of preference, but for people like me who enjoy lots of open land to hunt, fish, etc I would love to be able to work from a ranch.

San Francisco is starting a $4.2B high speed rail project. It is supposed to create many jobs.

We discussed a lot of different adaptive reuse projects. I have mentioned this many times but again the trend of people migrating to the urban core will cause adaptive reuse to be much more prevalent. Right now it is still a niche market, but I believe that is rapidly changing. There really are a lot of cool projects out there in which the developer has been really creative, but with green technologies being so popular it may be hard to incorporate these into older structures. So there may have to be lines drawn regarding aesthetic qualities, historical preservation and being green efficient.

Thursday, August 5, 2010

Class 9: August 5, 2010

DFW area has been growing a great deal. It will be another year or so before the market works its self out. 12,000 units are expected to be delivered in DFW in year 2010. This shows that construction is still taking place in the area. A lot of this because it makes economic sense to go ahead and finish building then leaving the project partially finished. Multi-family will continue to do well in the coming years because many people have to rent because they are scared of home prices dropping or cannot get loans and it just makes more sense to rent than to own.

One of the things slowing single family home construction is that banks are not allowing AD&C lending. This could be a problem if demand picks up for homes and the lending will not be there.

iPad is being used a lot in construction. Project and construction managers have all drawings and schematics on hand and it saves them on printing costs but also just streamlines the process when you can straight to the specs on site. Also, if an architect and engineer need to change plans it can be instant on the iPad.

D.R. Horton reported earnings of $50.5 million but with the expiration of the new home tax credit they are looking at some hard times ahead. However, D.R. Horton is known for slashing prices.

Investors are looking more favorably upon apartment REITs because of current market trends. If REITs were smart they would hire up all the excellent property managers because that is where the value comes from in a REIT. The higher occupancy you can achieve and the more you can lower your OPEX and just run the property more efficiently that is where the value in a REIT lies.

Because of oil spill the governor of Florida wants all residential and commercial real estate values to be re-appraised to calculate the loss in property values. He wants to send this loss to BP to foot the bill for the value decline. This causes a problem for some cash strapped counties as staff time and cost will be tough.

A lot of private equity swooping in on apartment communities in markets that have bottomed out or become somewhat stabilized.

Economists project many different outcomes for the comeback of the housing market. One economist thinks the market will increase by 37% and another thinks it will decline by 18% over a five year span. It is funny how a so-called expert can say one thing and it is perceived as fact.

Trinity River Vision: July 29, 2010

We met with Shanna Cate of the Fort Worth Trinity River Vision.

There are a couple different aspects to this project and the first one is the development of trinity uptown. This will be where all the private development takes place. They are looking to develop a channel through uptown so can develop right up on the waterfront. The city rezoned about 1000 acres where they want development to take place. The type of zoning is form based code. This is where there is no particular use a building has to comply to, but the building just has to be built to certain specifications and then can have whatever use is feasible. If any public dollars are used for development of multi family must comply to affordable housing laws.

There are four main components to this taking place and making a hip urban environment while being safe at the same time. They are flood protection, urban revitalization, ecosystem improvement, and recreation. The plan for the project is to have the East Bank for development and the West Bank for recreation (trails, etc.). City wide citizens have wanted better amenities along the water and trails.

For the recreation part of the project they want to redevelop Gateway Park and make it one of the biggest and nicest urban programmed park in the country. One of the coolest things about the recreation is the wake park that could happen. They would like to use one of the levies for people to go wakeboard and participate in water sports equipped with ramps and all.

The project has a 12 year construction plan. The order of the construction phases is bridges, bypass channel, storm water management, isolation gates, dam and channel lock, interior water feature, trinity uptown. When the project is completed it is supposed to increase property tax revenues to $1.3 billion, 16,000 permanent jobs, and 10,000 mixed income residential units.